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Wednesday, December 13, 2017

2017 Gujarat Assembly Elections - In Phase II and final round today, BJP defends narrower leads than in first Thursday Dec 14,2017








In the 93 seats voting in the second and final phase of the Gujarat elections Thursday Dec 14,2017, the 2012 polls had seen the Congress challenge the BJP more strongly than in the 83 that voted in the first phase.


Of these 93 seats, the Congress won 39 to the BJP’s 52, winning 3 seats for every 4 lost; of the first 83, the Congress had only 22 to the BJP’s 63, losing thrice as many as it won.

In Central Gujarat, in fact, the Congress ran the BJP close, winning 18 seats to the latter’s 20.

 As far as winning margins are concerned, however, the BJP was miles ahead in all five phases, including the two — Central and North Gujarat — that go to polls Thursday dec 14,2017

In Central Gujarat’s 40 seats, the average margin was 19,946 votes. The BJP won its 20 seats with an average margin of 25,154 while the Congress won its 18 with an average margin of 15,169. Central Gujarat consists of 7 districts — Vadodara, Anand, Kheda, Panchmahal, Dahod, Chhota Udepur and Mahisagar

Across regions, the BJP’s average margin was higher than the region’s average while the Congress’s was less. In North Gujarat’s 53 seats, the average victory margin in 2012 was 26,015 votes. The BJP’s 32 victories came with an average margin of 32,795, while the Congress won 21 seats with average margin of 15,684 — less than half the BJP average margin. North Gujarat covers seven districts —Ahmedabad, Arvalli, Banaskantha, Gandhinagar, Patan, Mahesana and Sabarkantha.
The 89 assembly seats that voted last week fall in three regions — Saurashtra, Kutch and South Gujarat.

In Saurashtra, where the Patidar movement against the ruling BJP was at its most aggressive, the average victory margin in 48 seats was 14,580 votes in 2012. The BJP won 30 seats, with average margin of 17,801 votes; the Congress won 15 with an average margin of 7,879 — half the average of the region. Saurashtra covers Surendranagar, Jamnagar, Porbandar, Junagarh, Gir Somnath, Bhavnagar, Morbi, Devbhumi Dwarka, Botad, Rajkot and Amreli.

In Kutch, a geographically large area comprising only one district, there are 6 seats of which the BJP won 5 with an average margin of 10,547 votes, just above the region’s overall average of 10,058. The Congress won the remaining seat with a margin of 7,613.

In South Gujarat with 35 seats, the average victory margin was 28,320 votes. The BJP won 28 seats with an average margin of 31,354 while the Congress won 6 with an average margin of 16,662. This region covers seven districts — Surat, Bharuch, Narmada, Navsari, Dangs, Valsad and Tapi.

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